By Angelo Falcón, The NiLP Report

I. Introduction

The National Institute for Latino Policy (NiLP) has been trying to track elite Latino opinion on the Trump Administration through our National Latino Opinion Leaders Survey. Previous to the current survey, we conducted one in March also focusing on Trump. The purpose is to see if Latino leadership views of this Administration have worsened, improved or stayed the same. This approach is an effort to go beyond the opinion of only specific individuals and organizations to a wider range of leaders from throughout the country. In our March the Latino opinion leaders were extremely negative towards Trump; in this May survey we were interested to see if there were any changes as the Administration went beyond their first 100 days.

To our knowledge, no comparable ongoing survey of Latino opinion leaders exists at present. The National Latino Opinion Leaders Survey, therefore, is a unique resource that provides yet another window into the views of this important segment of the national electorate. To view past survey findings, click here. Because there are no clear parameters for determining the precise demographic mix of Latino opinion leaders, we do not report on the results of this survey for the total respondents but rather report on specific subsets. The main subset we use consists of the main racial-ethnic groups represented — Puerto

Ricans, Mexicans and Other Hispanics (which includes other Central and South Americans).

This online survey was conducted by the National Institute for Latino Policy (NiLP) during May 11-19, 2017. A total of 332 Latino opinion leaders participated from throughout the United States. While this may be the closest thing to an ongoing survey of national Latino leadership in existence today, it is not based on a scientific sample, making our findings only suggestive of broader trends and attitudes. The intent of the NiLP survey is to stimulate discussion and debate on critical issues facing the Latino community by providing some insights into the thinking of a broad range of engaged Latino leaders.

II. Assessing Trump

How did the Latino opinion feel Trump is handling his job as President? All three groups of Latino opinion leaders overwhelmingly disapprove of the job that Trump is doing as President (92-96 percent). The Puerto Rican opinion leaders were most approving (but by only 8 percent).

During the week of our survey, there was increasing talk of impeachment. We asked the Latino opinion leaders their view on this. Large majorities of all three Latino opinion leaders feel “very strongly” that President Trump should be impeached (64-69 percent). Only from 13-16 percent believe he should not be impeached.

Another way to gauge the Latino opinion leaders’ sense of how much serious trouble President Trump was in, we asked if they thought is term was now beginning to unravel. In large pluralities, all three groups of Latino opinion leaders agree with the statement that Trump’s firing of the FBI Director is “the beginning of the end of his Administration” (43-50 percent). However, another significant number stated that they didn’t know or were not sure (24-32 percent).

Another way to see how the Latino opinion leaders viewed Trump was through their support of his priorities. When asked which Trump policy priority they supported as Latinos, majorities of all three Latino opinion leaders preferred not to support any of this Administration’s (55-56 percent). Of these presented to them, the largest number selected infrastructure development, which was the only Trump priority they would support in any significant way (30-36 percent).

III. Trump-Latino Relations

Is the Trump Administration adequately reaching out to the Latino community? How does its outreach compare to that of the Democrats and are its focus on Latino business groups sufficient?

All three groups of Latino opinion leaders overwhelmingly feel that President Trump is not adequately reaching out to the Latino community (96-98 percent).

On the other hand, when asked if the Democratic Party was reaching out adequately to the Latino community, all three groups of Latino opinion leaders feel that it is not (80-82 percent). Should Latinos be participating in the Trump Administration?

Each group of Latino opinion leaders is about equally divided over whether Latinos should be participating in the Trump Administration. Slight majorities feel that the Administration should be more inclusive of Latinos (51-54 percent), while a significant number feel Latinos should not be a part of it (42-45 percent).

This skepticism about Latinos participating the Trump Administration is reflected in large majorities of the Latino Opinion leaders not feeling confident that Alexander Acosta, the new Secretary of Labor and lone Latino in the Trump Cabinet, will adequately be responsive to the needs of the Latino community (62-70 percent). The Other Latino opinion leaders were the most confident that he would be responsive (only 14 percent).

IV. Issues

Obamacare. All three groups of Latinos opinion leaders overwhelmingly disagree that Obamacare should be repealed and replaced (83-84 percent).

On the other hand, all three groups of Latino opinion leaders tended to think that the Democrats need to be held accountable for not fixing Obamacare while they controlled the White House (44-53 percent).

Tax Reform. The Republican position that tax reforms that benefit the wealthy will result in greater economic growth and increased government revenue was overwhelmingly rejected by all three groups of Latino opinion leaders (91-96 percent). This is an issue that also must affect their views on the tax reform aspects of Obamacare.

Immigration Policy. Conservatives often criticize Latinos for supporting open borders for the United States and not respecting US immigration laws. On this issue, the Latino opinion leaders were divided. The majority of Mexican opinion leaders supported the open border approach (56 percent), while the largest percentage, half, of the Puerto Ricans supported US regulation of its borders (50 percent). The Other Latino opinion leaders were evenly divided on this issue (44 percent each side).

War. On foreign policy, the Latino opinion leaders displayed a strong anti-war perspective. Majorities of all three groups of Latino opinion leaders disagreed with the Trump Administration’s bombing of the Syrian airfield (60-70 percent). The Puerto Rican opinion leaders were the most supportive (26 percent).

Asked if the US should increase its military presence in Afghanistan, even greater percentages of the three groups of Latino Opinion leaders disagreed (80-85 percent).

Puerto Rico Debt Crisis. The Government of Puerto Rico has recently filed for bankruptcy under the terms of the PROMESA legislation of the US Congress. Majorities of all three groups of Latino opinion leaders were pessimistic that by doing so Puerto Rico will resolve its debt crisis (56-68 percent). Among those most affected, Puerto Ricans, 59 percent didn’t think it would resolve the crisis, 29 percent that it would, and 12 percent didn’t know or were not sure.

Census. The Census Bureau is proposing that the current race and Hispanic questions should be combined into one for the 2020 Census. By next year the Census Bureau is required to submit all of the questions for the 2020 Census to the Congress. All three groups of the Latino opinion leader tended to oppose such a change (46-48 percent). However, another significant number felt they needed more information before they could decide (28-38 percent).

Since the Census questions issue is about Latinos’ racial-ethnic identity, the Latino opinion leaders were asked how they view Latinos or Hispanics, as a racial minority or ethnic group? Here we saw a difference between the different groups of Latino opinion leaders: the Mexicans mainly viewed Latinos as a racial minority, while Puerto Ricans and the Other Latinos as an ethnic group.

V. Resistance to Trump

Ther4e appears to be increasing talk of resisting the policies of the Trump Administration. We asked the Latino opinion leaders if they felt that Latinos leader and the Democratic Party were adequately opposing Trump.

A vast majority of all three Latino opinion leaders feel that the Latino community’s leadership is not resisting Trump forcefully enough (72-79 percent).

About two-thirds of all three groups of Latino opinion leaders feel that the Democratic Party is not resisting Trump adequately (70 percent). Only about a quarter believe that they are adequately doing so (23-24 percent).

VI. Discussion

1. A strongly negative view of the Trump Presidency among Latino leaders continues into the first five months of the Administration. The broad support for his impeachment remains consistent. However, there was some division among them over whether Trump’s firing of the FBI Director spelled the beginning of the end of his Presidency.
2. There is a high degree of agreement among the three groups of Latino opinion leaders on most of their critical assessment of Trump and his policies.
3. There are a few issues covered in this survey with which the Latino opinion leaders are divided:

• Whether Latinos should be participating in the Administration. Some Latino leaders have criticized Trump for not being more inclusive of Latinos, while others are advocating nonparticipation in his government. It appears that Latino leaders are very divided on this issue.
• Latinos are criticized by conservatives as being overwhelmingly for “open borders” to highlight their main difference over immigration policy. This survey finds, however, that Latinos are equally divided between the support of open borders and the rights of the US to control its borders.
• The Census Bureau proposal to combine the race and Hispanic questions into one, while largely opposed by the Latino opinion leaders, also has a large number indicating that they do not have enough information on the issue at this point to take a position.
• Regarding holding the Democratic Party accountable for not having fixed the problems with Obamacare when they controlled the White House, while scores of all three groups of Latino opinion leaders felt they should be held accountable, another significant number stated they didn’t know or were not sure.
• There was disagreement across groups over whether Latinos or Hispanics were a racial minority or an ethnic group. The Mexican opinion leaders generally feel Latinos are a racial minority, while the Puerto Ricans and Other Latinos fee they are an ethnic group. On the Census combined question issue, those feeling they are an ethnic group were in greater opposition to the proposed change than those who feel they are an ethnic group.

4. This survey reveals a high level of unity among Latino leaders on a broad range of issues, but also indicates some areas of division. This type of survey allows for a more comprehensive view of Latino elite opinion than exists elsewhere and is certainly more useful than only relying on the opinion of a small number of sometimes random individual Latino leaders or organizations. It also supplements polls of the general Latino population or likely voters by exploring the views of Latino leaders whose role is to help frame issues for the broader Latino community.

Angelo Falcón is President of the National Institute for Latino Policy (NiLP). He can be reached at [email protected].